险资股权投资的结构性改革研究*——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本，发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应，相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下，险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比，并提高资产周转率，从而降低两类代理成本；持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识，同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

长江经济带人才集聚水平测度及时空演变研究——基于价值链视角

基于价值链视角，构建涵盖人才资源在区域空间层面集聚生成、地区配置、效能产出3个维度在内的区域人才集聚水平评价指标体系，采用专家咨询AHP-信息熵组合赋权法构建综合评价模型和耦合协调度模型，对2010—2018年长江经济带沿线省市人才集聚水平进行测度与时空演化特征分析。结果表明，就长江经济带整体而言，考察期内地区人才集聚水平总体呈现逐年上升态势，但仍处于低水平状态；沿线省市人才集聚水平差异显著，缩小趋势渐缓，整体呈现局部高水平、全局低效率的不利境况；各省市人才集聚水平关键维度的耦合协调度整体呈显著波动递增态势，但内部耦合协调度存在不平衡发展问题，影响地区人才集聚水平整体提升。为提升长江经济带人才集聚水平，推进沿线地区协调发展，需强化区域人才合作机制，采取差别化精准策略破解沿线地区人才集聚低水平、不协调的短板因素。     

M5 competition uncertainty: Overdispersion,distributional forecasting,GAMLSS, and beyond

The M5 competition uncertainty track aims for probabilistic forecasting of sales of thousands of Walmart retail goods. We show that the M5 competition data face strong overdispersion and sporadic demand, especially zero demand. We discuss modeling issues concerning adequate probabilistic forecasting of such count data processes. Unfortunately, the majority of popular prediction methods used in the M5 competition (e.g. lightgbm and xgboost GBMs) fail to address the data characteristics, due to the considered objective functions. Distributional forecasting provides a suitable modeling approach to overcome those problems. The GAMLSS framework allows for flexible probabilistic forecasting using low-dimensional distributions. We illustrate how the GAMLSS approach can be applied to M5 competition data by modeling the location and scale parameters of various distributions, e.g. the negative binomial distribution. Finally, we discuss software packages for distributional modeling and their drawbacks, like the R package gamlss with its package extensions, and (deep) distributional forecasting libraries such as TensorFlow Probability.     

Information asymmetry in the innovation adoption decision of tourism and hospitality SMEs in emerging markets: A mixed-method analysis

Investment decisions, particularly innovation adoption decisions, can sustain long-term viability of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). However, information asymmetry could limit the ability of SME management to make informed innovation adoption decisions. Even though information asymmetry is a multidimensional construct, prior literature has only focused on financial information asymmetry in such decisions. Therefore, the current study fills the research gap by conducting two separate studies: one analyzes World Bank Group data from 1250 observations in 11 emerging markets, and the other interviews eight SME owners and managers. The findings of the mixed-method studies suggest that financial, business regulation, and court information asymmetry decrease the likelihood of SMEs' product innovation adoption. The study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of information asymmetry in SMEs’ decision-making rooted in agency theory. Moreover, its methodological contribution lies in measuring information asymmetry with micro-level data.     

Legally astute managers as a source of value in organizations

The legal and compliance departments in organizations have more influence than ever before. Why then are companies so vulnerable to legal liability? The problem may not be with talented legal professionals, but with the lack of legal knowledge held by MBAs and other business school graduates that make day-to-day decisions in modern organizations. Firms can close this knowledge gap and minimize legal liability by training their managers in legal astuteness—the ability of a manager to address legal issues successfully—by instilling four essential traits: respecting the rule of law, recognizing legal issues, resolving problems proactively, and reporting complex legal issues to experts. Job candidates should also be screened for traits of legal astuteness. A legally astute candidate, especially a graduate of a business school that requires legal education for all its students, can be a cultural ambassador for legal astuteness and a valuable liaison between legal and compliance departments and the candidate’s functional area. A legally ignorant candidate will require significant training and a frank assessment of the legal risk they bring to the organization. Modern firms in today’s legal environment face two choices: hire a legally astute manager now or deal with a compliance headache later.     

女性高管对企业研发创新的影响：一个有调节的中介模型

企业创新是企业持续发展的内在动力,也是推动国家产业升级、建设创新型国家的重要举措.近年来女性高管比重不断提高,学术界开始关注女性高管对企业研发创新的影响.以沪深两市2010—2018年A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验女性高管对企业研发创新投入的影响.结果表明:女性高管负向影响企业研发创新投入;其负向作用以风险承担为中介实现;企业所有制调节了中介过程的后半段路径.     

中小企业全面预算管理存在的问题与对策

在经济全球化的背景下,大部分企业都面临着巨大的竞争压力,尤其对于中小企业来说,在复杂环境下保持稳定发展更是一种挑战。构建全面预算管理体系是企业提升市场竞争力的重要手段,虽然预算管理流程通常只分为预算编制、预算执行控制、预算考核三大环节,但我国中小企业的全面预算管理还存在诸多问题。论文据此进行分析并提出解决对策。     

试论基于结构性减税降费的小微企业税收筹划路径

现阶段,我国针对经济的实际情况,推出了一系列减免税优惠政策,以此进一步推动经济的平稳发展,能够有效地帮助一些小微企业缓解经营过程中面临的压力。鉴于此,论文针对现阶段基于结构性减税降费的小微企业税收筹划路径进行分析和阐述。     

高等职业教育校企合作的现代学徒制人才培养模式

我国的高等职业教育是为社会培养人才重要的场所,应该坚持校企合作和工学结合的教育方针。但是在实际的实施中合作层次比较浅,缺乏一定的管理机制,合作方在各个方面表现得不够积极。因此,我们应该针对这些问题作出一些新的尝试和改变。要吸取校企合作中现代学徒制的成功经验,结合高等职业教育实际情况,找到校企合作的现代学徒制人才培养模式。     

What motivates customers to shop in smart shops? The impacts of smart technology and technology readiness

With the rapid diffusion of smart technologies, a new retail mode, the smart shop, has received increasing attention from both academia and practitioners in the 5G era. However, previous studies on smart shops have largely focused on the effects of smart technologies on technology adoption rather than customer shopping behaviors. To fill this gap, this study applies the hedonic information systems acceptance model (HISAM) to identify the utilitarian and hedonic motivations affecting consumer shopping intention. In addition, we characterize a second-order formative construct, technology readiness, as a technology-related personality to test its moderating role in the research model in the marketing context when consumer behaviors may differ due to individual characteristics. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we applied SmartPLS 3.2.8 to analyze 298 valid samples. The results show that perceived ease of use significantly affects perceived usefulness and perceived enjoyment, in turn, these three factors directly influence shopping intention. Additionally, perceived ease of use will have a stronger impact on perceived usefulness and shopping intention when the customer has a high level of technology readiness. Finally, theoretical and practical suggestions and future research directions are also discussed.